Published: July 19, 2008 09:48 am            

Are we on the outside of the recession looking in?

Steve Boggs, Democrat Publisher

Did you ever get the feeling we’re on the outside looking in at the great recession of 2008? That may be an oversimplification, but it sure seems that way.

It’s really hard to put a finger on exactly why that perception exists, but it seems almost tangible. The local real estate market is heating up (trust me on that one), sales tax collections are trending up, new businesses are coming to town, occupancy rates remain robust at local hotels and, despite the price of gas, traffic doesn’t seem to be getting any lighter in Weatherford.

The forces feeding this economy remain unchanged. Fort Worth’s economy is strong and expanding, the Barnett Shale is truly in its heyday and is all around us, and the migration to the south and southwest regions of the country show no signs of changing.

That’s not to say the local economic engine doesn’t have its problems. Four-dollar gas is four-dollar gas, and it knows no geographic boundaries. It hurts us in Texas just like it does in California, New York or Chicago. The difference here is we produce it and get more direct benefits from high oil prices than those outside the oil patch.

While we certainly do not live in a utopian economic climate, it sure seems that way when you compare the North Texas region (Fort Worth’s side in particular) to other parts of the country. They’re dealing with high foreclosure rates, rising unemployment and less economic opportunities.

And yet ...

We’ve heard directly from folks moving to this part of the world that things are picking up “back home.” Real estate markets from the East Coast to the northwest are picking up after almost a year of deflation. Houses are beginning to sell, and prices have leveled off. The economic growth is paltry, but present, and the impending doom of a recession seems to have been acclimated into the business climate.

There’s an old adage that some parts of the country are the first to feel the effects of an economic downturn and the first to recover from them. That obviously does not apply to North Texas, but it does make you wonder. If the rest of the country begins to recover in the next 12 months, what will that do to our local economy that has slowed far less than anyone else?

Presidential politics aside, a lot of pending problems will be solved, one way or another, in the coming months. The banking, mortgage and credit problems will play themselves out, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will bottom out and bounce, and employment will cycle into an upswing like it has done a thousand times before. The uncertain economic future will come into clear focus. Regardless of what the prospects are, the uncertainty will disappear and nature will run its course. Could it be that bad times are better than uncertain times? Probably so.

With that in mind, it bears repeating that gas prices remain a huge drain on the economic engine of America, and increasing supply in all forms should be our No. 1 priority. We remain the world’s largest economy, and the No. 1 customer for virtually every global enterprise.

Do not allow the doom and gloom of depression reporting influence your opinion. Separate fact from fiction and make an informed choice in every venture you undertake — economic, political or otherwise.

This little part of the world may or may not be on the outside of the recession looking in, but other parts of the country seems to be showing signs of life after a year of contraction and uncertainty. It’s not much to go on, but it certainly helps.

        

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